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Who speaks for American Jews? A new
survey of American-Jewish opinion reveals surprising views on US policy toward
the Middle East
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J Street, the American-Jewish
peace lobby, has released its first
opinion survey on the level of support among American Jews for territorial
compromise and a negotiated solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict. There will
be those who may doubt the results, given J Street's left-wing politics. But
the poll actually dovetails with surveys conducted by other groups, including
the American Jewish Committee. One of the more interesting
results of the J Street survey was a mixed finding. When asked whether Israel
played a "big role" in their US election vote, 58% answered
"yes". But when listed among a group of other issues, Israel came out
in the bottom tier of issues, and only 8% noted Israel was one of their two top
issues in determining their vote for president or Congress. Theoretically, Jews
believe Israel is an important political issue. But when push comes to shove,
there are other bread-and-butter issues like the economy and the Iraq war that
are far more important. This indicates that support for the Israel lobby is
actually quite shallow among the Jewish community. It's no surprise that Jews
disapprove of President Bush's job performance, though his 16% approval rating
is even lower than I thought it might be. Barack Obama beat John McCain in the
poll by 62% to 32%. This is a respectable showing by McCain compared to past
Republican presidential races. It should be a cause of some concern to Obama,
however, who is polling behind several other recent Democratic presidential
candidates. In fact, in the last three successful Democratic presidential races
(Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter) none captured less than 71% of the Jewish vote. Several Jewish Democratic
political strategists have told me that Obama has grounds for concern in his
polling among Jews. Undoubtedly it will be a close race, and to ensure his
election he should be polling higher than he is. It appears that smears on
Obama's patriotism, ethnic and religious background, and commitment to Israel
by the Republican far-right have struck a chord among some American Jews who
have voted Democratic in past elections. It would be a shame if Islamophobia
were allowed to influence the Jewish vote and the outcome of the presidential
election. Clearly, Obama's recent visit to
Israel, along with the Palestinian territories, was an attempt to bolster his
credibility among American Jews. His advisers realise it can't hurt to have the
candidate praying at the Western Wall as his hand lovingly caresses the stones
of the sacred Jewish site. But emblematic of the problems afflicting him was
the right-wing heckler
standing nearby taunting repetitively like a mantra: "Obama, Jerusalem
is not for sale!" Sixty-one percent believe Israel
is "less secure" than it was before his presidency. Only 26% believe
it is more secure. When asked whether the solution to the Israeli-Arab conflict
involved negotiating peace agreements or relying on military force alone to
achieve security, J Street respondents endorsed the former over the latter by
50% to 34%. Fully 75% of those polled believe
that the US should play an aggressive role in promoting a negotiated peace even
if it means disagreeing publicly with the positions of the parties to the
conflict. Seventy percent were even willing for the US to exert
"pressure" on those parties it saw as impeding progress toward a
settlement. This has to be bad news for the Republican Jewish Coalition, which
lamely attempts to claim every election cycle that Democrats are soft on Israel
because they are more likely to support US policy saying that Israeli
settlements are an obstacle to peace. This poll shows that American Jews would
not have a problem with any administration that took an assertive role in
defending this position. Joe Lieberman isn't going to like
the following results. Only 7% of poll respondents view evangelical Zionist
leader John
Hagee favourably. Only 19% have a favourable impression of Christians
United for Israel, and just one in four said Jewish groups should form
alliances with CUFI. Finally, Holy Joe himself only earns a 37% favourable
rating (48% unfavourable). Regarding Iran, 69% said they
were more likely to support a candidate who called for negotiations with Iran
and resorting to sanctions if they failed. In the AJC's December 2007
opinion survey, 57% opposed US military action against Iran to prevent it
from gaining a nuclear weapon. I found several results of the J
Street poll alarming. Forty-eight percent were more likely to vote for a
candidate who called for supporting Israel if it launched a pre-emptive attack
on Iran. Not enough American Jews understand that US national interests may
diverge from Israel's. Sixty-five percent were more
likely to support a candidate who said (falsely) that Arabs have repeatedly
rejected Israeli peace offers. Only 44% support the idea of declaring East
Jerusalem the capital of a Palestinian state. In the AJC poll, only 36% said
"Israel [should] be willing to compromise on the status of Jerusalem as a
united city under Israeli jurisdiction." Fifty-nine percent of J Street
respondents support withdrawal from "most" of the West Bank. Fifty-two
percent believe the US should tell Israel to "end settlement
expansion", and 58% support Israeli withdrawal from the Golan in return
for peace with Syria. By comparison, in a June 2007 poll
conducted by James Zogby for Americans for Peace Now, 63% of American Jews
supported a "settlement freeze" and 81% support Israel-Syria peace
negotiations (though the questions are phrased differently). Seventy-six percent of those
polled by J Street believe Israel should negotiate with Hamas on behalf of
peace. Fifty-four percent believe that IDF killings of Palestinian civilians
lead to more terror. Sixty-one percent are opposed to collective punishment
(Israel's current policy toward Gaza). Eighty-one percent will support
"any peace deal" agreed to by Israel with its Arab neighbours. One
should keep this fact in mind when listening to the geshrei from the
Orthodox community, which calls any territorial compromise on Jerusalem a
betrayal of the Jewish people. Only a very small minority of American Jews
agree. Quite frankly, I was shocked that
Aipac itself earned only a 38% favourable rating in the J Street poll (21%
unfavourable). Sixty percent said it does not bother them when American Jews
disagree with Israeli government policy. When asked whether traditional Jewish
groups in general do a good job of representing the community's views on
Israel, 49% agreed. When asked specifically whether Aipac does a good job, that
number fell to 34%. All this again shows the weakness
of Aipac when it is viewed in the context of the overall Jewish community. The
hawkish policy pronouncements of the Israel lobby and specifically Aipac
represent little more than themselves and their members when it comes to the Israeli-Arab
conflict. The majority of American Jews don't agree. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/25/israelandthepalestinians.usforeignpolicy
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